Tanvir Ferdousi

The explainability of large and complex simulation models is an open problem. We present a framework to analyze such models by processing multidimensional data through a pipeline of target variable computation, clustering, supervised classification, and feature importance analysis. As a use case, the well-known large-scale hydrology and crop systems simulator VIC-CropSyst is utilized to evaluate how climate change may affect water availability in Washington, United States. We study how snowmelt varies with climate variables (temperature, precipitation) to identify different response characteristics. Based on these characteristics, spatial units are clustered into six distinct classes. A random forest classifier is used with Shapley values to rank static soil and land parameters that help detect each class. The results also include an analysis of risk across different classes to identify areas vulnerable to climate change. This paper demonstrates the usefulness of the proposed framework in providing explainability for large and complex simulations.

The recent outbreaks of the insect-vectored Zika virus have demonstrated its potential to be sexually transmitted, which complicates modeling and our understanding of disease dynamics. Autochthonous outbreaks in the US mainland may be a consequence of both modes of transmission, which affect the outbreak size, duration, and virus persistence. We propose a novel individual-based interconnected network model that incorporates both insect-vectored and sexual transmission of this pathogen. This model interconnects a homogeneous mosquito vector population with a heterogeneous human host contact network. The model incorporates the seasonal variation of mosquito abundance and characterizes host dynamics based on age group and gender in order to produce realistic projections. We use a sexual contact network which is generated on the basis of real world sexual behavior data. Our findings suggest that for a high relative transmissibility of asymptomatic hosts, Zika virus shows a high probability of sustaining in the human population for up to 3 months without the presence of mosquito vectors. Zika outbreaks are strongly affected by the large proportion of asymptomatic individuals and their relative transmissibility. The outbreak size is also affected by the time of the year when the pathogen is introduced. Although sexual transmission has a relatively low contribution in determining the epidemic size, it plays a role in sustaining the epidemic and creating potential endemic scenarios.

Motivated by a wide range of applications, research on agent-based models of contagion propagation over networks has attracted a lot of attention in the literature. Many of the available software systems for simulating such agent-based models require users to download software, build the executable, and set up execution environments. Further, running the resulting executable may require access to high performance computing clusters. Our work describes an open access software system (NetSimS) that works under the “Modeling and Simulation as a Service” (MSaaS) paradigm. It enables users to run simulations by selecting models and parameter values, initial conditions, and networks through a web interface. The system supports a variety of models and networks with millions of nodes and edges. In addition to the simulator, the system includes components that enable users to choose initial conditions for simulations in a variety of ways, to analyze the data generated through simulations, and to produce plots from the data. We describe the components of NetSimS and carry out a performance evaluation of the system. We also discuss two case studies carried out on large networks using the system. NetSimS is a major component within net.science, a cyberinfrastructure for network science.